Oversupply and Soft Demand Keep China’s EVA Market Under Pressure

With substantial new EVA capacity ramping up in December and downstream sectors still facing margin and demand headwinds, the base case for China’s EVA market in December is continued weak-to-soft pricing, with the market likely to trade at or near recent lows. Any short-term support from temporary turnarounds or logistical disruptions is expected to be limited and vulnerable to renewed downside once supply normalizes.

According to Townsend’s EVA Market Monthly, China’s EVA market extended its downtrend in November, with prices weakening across all major application segments amid oversupply and lackluster downstream demand. Photovoltaic (PV) grades saw the sharpest correction, while softer feedstock prices further eroded cost support, reinforcing the bearish tone for EVA.

On the supply side, domestic operating rates moved lower but remained relatively high in absolute terms. Several units underwent maintenance or minor rate reductions during November, leading to a modest decline in output compared with October. However, destocking remained slow, and inventories stayed elevated, particularly for PV and foam grades. Steady arrival of imported material — mainly from South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand — added to the length. An East China trader commented,

“Even with some plants under maintenance, it still feels like there is more material than the market can absorb. Imported PV grades are lining up against domestic offers, and nobody wants to carry extra stocks into year-end.”

Demand-side conditions failed to provide the usual late-year uplift. November should have been the tail end of the traditional peak season for PV installations and film consumption, but the market instead saw a “peak-season downturn.” EVA demand was effectively pulled forward into August–September, when PV film producers and module makers had ramped up purchases in anticipation of strong installation schedules. By November, many film and module producers were busy digesting earlier inventories rather than placing fresh bulk orders. A film converter in Jiangsu noted,

“We front-loaded a lot of production in the third quarter. Since October, our EVA purchasing has basically been on a just-in-time basis. Any offer that still looks like ‘peak-season pricing’ just doesn’t work for us.”

The photovoltaic sector, traditionally the engine of EVA growth, underperformed expectations throughout the month. Module makers trimmed operating rates as installation momentum slowed and margins remained under pressure in both domestic and export markets. EVA film producers in Jiangsu, Anhui, and other coastal provinces largely shifted to hand-to-mouth replenishment, purchasing only to cover confirmed orders. As one North China trader put it,

“The risk of holding high-priced PV grade is now much greater than the potential upside. Most customers would rather miss a small up-move than be stuck with expensive stock if prices slip again.”

In hot-melt adhesive and extrusion-coating applications, activity was somewhat more resilient but still lacked real momentum. Packaging, bookbinding, and label applications provided a baseline of adhesive demand, yet converters remained cautious about forward orders amid soft macro sentiment and ongoing competition from alternative polymers and formulations.

Traditional applications such as foam and wire & cable compounds registered more pronounced weakness. Demand from the footwear sector continued to suffer from muted export orders and conservative domestic retail restocking. EVA foam sheet producers in Fujian and Zhejiang reported low utilization rates, with some lines idled intermittently due to insufficient orders. One foam converter commented that

“even promotional pricing has not triggered a rush of orders — brands are still cautious, and export buyers are focused on clearing existing inventory.”

In the cable space, infrastructure-related demand showed signs of fatigue, and some projects were delayed or scaled back. Cable-compound converters cut back EVA resin purchases and opted to run down existing stocks, contributing to sharper price declines for compound grades compared with adhesive and coating grades.

Trade flows and policy developments added a new external dimension to EVA market sentiment. On November 12, India’s Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers rescinded Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) Quality Control Orders covering 14 chemical and polymer products, including ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) copolymers, effectively removing mandatory BIS certification for these imports with immediate effect. This decision reduces non-tariff barriers for Chinese EVA exporters targeting the Indian market. In the near term, the impact on Chinese EVA balances remains modest, as Indian buyers will need time to complete qualification work and evaluate offers. However, over the medium term, easier access to India could create an additional outlet for surplus Chinese EVA, particularly for commodity PV and foam grades, if pricing and specifications are competitive. We’ll be following this closely.

Looking ahead to December, supply pressure is expected to intensify. Around 500,000 tons/year of new EVA capacity is scheduled to be introduced, including a 300,000 tons/year unit at Zhejiang Petrochemical and a 200,000 tons/year line at Levima Green, which will lift China’s nameplate EVA capacity from roughly 3.3 million tons/year to about 3.8 million tons/year. Both units are initially geared toward higher-VA PV grades and high-end foam materials, directly increasing competition in segments that are already soft. At the same time, several domestic units that were under maintenance in November are due to resume operation, further boosting effective supply. In the absence of significant unplanned outages, the combined effect will be a marked increase in availability heading into year-end.

On the demand side, no major catalyst for recovery is visible in December. PV module production schedules are expected to decline further month-on-month, as developers adjust to project economics, grid-connection timelines, and financing constraints. EVA demand from film producers will therefore remain under pressure, with most continuing to purchase on a minimal, order-driven basis. Foam and cable compound demand is unlikely to see a strong rebound given the seasonal slowdown in footwear, infrastructure, and general consumer goods toward the year-end. Some packaging- and adhesive-related consumption may hold relatively steady, but this will not materially offset weakness in larger volume sectors.

Need end-use focused analysis of global plastics markets?  Townsend’s trailblazing reports have been putting framework around opportunities in plastics since 1977.  We publish an array of comprehensive & data-intensive reports on both large volume and specialty polymers.  From grade level pricing to long-term forecasts, all are deep-dive & leverage granular detail.