China Oversupply Underpins Weak-to-Pressured Base Case for EVA in January

In December, China’s EVA market remained on a sustained downcycle that has been in place since Q4, with domestic prices continuing to soften across most mainstream application segments. Persistently weak downstream demand, coupled with the ongoing release of new domestic capacity, lifted effective supply and weighed heavily on sentiment. Against this backdrop, petrochemical producers broadly lowered offers and prioritized destocking to reduce inventory risk ahead of year-end, keeping spot discussions defensive and transactions trending lower through much of the month.

The Townsend EVA Market Monthly team expects that for January the base case will remain weak-to-pressured, as oversupply is unlikely to ease quickly and new capacity ramp-up should become more visible in prompt availability. However, some participants expect a “firm early, softer later” pattern: as Lunar New Year approaches (February 17, 2026) and China’s Spring Festival holiday runs February 15–23, short-cycle restocking could provide a brief lift in early January. Even so, seasonal demand typically creates only a temporary bounce; as one trader put it, “With limited orders and early holiday shutdowns coming, it’s hard to see bearish sentiment reversing in a meaningful way.” The durability of any stabilization will still hinge on whether inventories genuinely tighten, whether sellers maintain output discipline, and whether downstream demand – especially PV film – shows a clearer recovery signal.

• Solar: The VA content of V2825 of Jiangsu Sailboat and Hanwha Total 280PV is 28%, used for photovoltaic modules. The average market price in December 2025 was $1,400/mt. The average CIF price in December 2025 was $1,210/mt.

• Melt Adhesives: The VA content of melt adhesive grades is typically 28-33%. The typical grade is LG EA28150. The average market price in December 2025 was $1,530/mt. The average CIF price in December 2025 was $1,305/mt.

• Foam: The VA content of foam grades typically ranges from 18-19%. Common grades are Formosa 7350M and BASF-YPC V5110J. The average market price in December 2025 was $1,396/mt. The average CIF price in December 2025 was $1,270/mt.

• Ext Coating: The VA content of Beijing Organic Chemical Y2022 is 14%, a grade commonly used for extrusion coating. The average market price in December 2025 was $1,521/mt. The average CIF price in December 2025 was $1,225/mt.

• Compound: The VA content of grades typically used for wire and cable compounds ranges from 26 to 27.5%. Commonly used grades are BASF-YPC 6110M, Formosa 7470M, and Levima UL00628. The average market price in December 2025 was $1,348/mt. The average CIF price in December 2025 was $1,300/mt.

Need end-use focused analysis of global plastics markets?  Townsend’s trailblazing reports have been putting framework around opportunities in plastics since 1977.  We publish an array of comprehensive & data-intensive reports on both large volume and specialty polymers.  From grade level pricing to long-term forecasts, all are deep-dive & leverage granular detail.

For a complimentary copy of Townsend’s EVA Market Intelligence Monthly please email customercare@townsendsolutions.com